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For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a strong position concerning Ukraine. After delivering warnings of "significant ramifications" during the summer if Russia's president persisted hindering peace discussions, Trump ultimately introduced major sanctions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move substantially hindered Putin's capacity to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, via his newly presented detailed peace initiative for Ukraine, which was developed by both nations' diplomats without Ukraine's or EU input, Trump has apparently reverted to his favorable to Russia position.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's proposal would in practice reward Putin for invading Ukraine while leaving the country's democracy in jeopardy. Although bold proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", significant aspects of the proposal actually compromise that very autonomy. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business experience, the former president persists to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a mere border issue, implying ceding Russia a section of Ukrainian territory will appease the leader. Yet, Russia's invasion is not only about occupying a damaged swath of economically weakened area in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to eliminate it so it stops serves as an appealing model for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that Putin's increasing autocracy denies them.

Border Concessions

While keeping in status the presently divided Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would require Ukraine to give up all of this eastern territory. Aside from rewarding Russia with area that its forces have been failed to occupy in exceeding a decade of warfare, this surrender would render Ukrainian military defenses critically undermined.

The area is the location of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the well-established protective structures that represent a critical obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, giving Putin a open route to Kyiv in case he subsequently choose to resume the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Furthermore, in a action that would facilitate renewed conflict simpler for Russia, the plan would mandate Ukraine to reduce the scale of its troops from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a cap of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's initiative places no similar constraints on Russia's military.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's attempts to depict the nation's chosen by the people leadership as extremists, Trump's plan states: "Every extremist belief system and practices must be rejected and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a peace deal. However, the proposal sets no condition that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting votes in Russia.

Security Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative has Russia commit not to "attack other states" and to "incorporate in legislation its stance of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". But considering that Putin has violated comparable treaties in the history – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to respect the nation's borders in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow committed to a halt in fighting and a return of occupied land in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – why should anyone trust Russia on this occasion?

That is why Ukraine has been so determined on external defense commitments. While the plan promises a "immediate coordinated armed reaction" should Russia resume its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the specifics vary from unclear to alarming. The proposal would not only block the nation Nato membership but also preclude Nato members from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Russia from restoring his reduced forces, rearming, and attacking again.

World Concern

An additional parallel deal reportedly would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any future "major, planned, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. Yet in contrast to a powerful national defense – the nation's most reliable deterrent against future hostilities – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, such as Trump, to respond militarily to Putin's aggression, something they have {not